Silverlight cements Microsoft's world domination

Microsoft Silverlight is the new technology that, as my crystal ball tells me, will ensure Microsoft domination of web, just as it does the desktop.
I came to this realization not only because I have seen Silverlight spects and examples, but because two more tiny events happen. One, I took a look at Google Analytics. Two, I spoke with a buddy of mine who develop rich web applications in Flex.
Here is how these 3 independent events lead to my realization.
DHTML (HTML +DOM+client side Javascript + Ajax) is difficult to develope and results are mostly quite ugly.
Flash (Adobe Flash, was Macromedia Flash), on the web, equals beauty. Take a look at http://www.coolhomepages.com/, a site I track for more years I care to remember. All the most beautiful pages are flash. It has not always been this way. Flash was a niche technology for a while. It is a commonplace now. One would work hard to find a browser with no Flash Player plug-in installed.
Flash wins because it is vector based, has ability to manipute objects over time, looks the same on all browsers and has scripting langauge built in. Flash is binary which means compact. Flash, however, was always a designer tool, not a programmer's one. So they thought hard and came up with Flex, a different take on the same technology, geared for programmers. Well, as my sources tell me, it is a relative flop. At least one developer says - it is still hard to develop and debug.
Everybody still does just that.
So why not like it? Mostly because it is difficult to develope for, but also because it is proprietary. Still , SVG+SMIL javascript animation, went nowhere. Maybe because of size (SVG is XML) or may be because designers are used to the superb Flash tools. O maybe everyone is used to Flash, kind of locked in. I'd guess it is also because of Flash ubiquity. SVG still means plugins install for most users.

Google is one web force to be reconed with. And Google did it all in DHTML. Spreadsheets. Writely. Even calendar, where Flash would make things so much more pretty. I thought it is forever. Not any more. Google Analytics 2.0, out about 2 weeks ago, have flash based timeline, and world map. And boy it is beautiful. I praise Google for great application and also being able to break up with tradition. What it spells for DHTML is another matter entirely.

Flash seems to be ruling. This however will soon change.

Microsoft came with Silverlight. Silverlight it is vector graphics (XAML) plus C# as programming language, .NET as a framework, open and scriptable object model and Microsoft backing. Via windows updates, Microsoft will place Silverlight to any number of PCs out there in no time, so market penetration will not be an issue. Vector xml is nice. What makes the world of difference is that Microsoft understands what is the key to world domincation - developers.

Balmer was shouting "Developers Developers Developers" and he was right. Still is. Web era does not change anything and if it does it is still in favor of developers. Distribution of app has just become all too much easier, so your operations are much cheaper now. No more printed materials or even CD sleeves to buy.

Microsoft knows how to care for Developers. That is why .NET is Delphi ( Joel puts it brilliantly in http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/Our.NetStrategy.html) Delphi was better for developers then VB, and they got Anders. Visual Studio is a marvel. IntelliJ is better, but costly and VS is now free. Adobe/Macromedia was always about designers. Flex just proves it once again.

So once Microsoft gives me a great environment (Orcas next iteraton of VS) , great framework .NET and convenient langauge C#, not to forget a mirriad of 3rd party controls that inevitably pop up , and I'll crank out rich web clients like dosen a day.

Microsoft does try to do something for designers - after all somebody has to design the front, and the tools are decent. No match for illustrator or photoshop or flash, merely passable. And it is not going to steal the design acclaim of Flash sites. But it will make ticket ordering applciatons and flowcharters and god knows what else pop up like crazy, games, education titles you name it.

People rob the banks because that is where the money is.
Eyeballs is internet money. And they'll be after applications. Don't show me the current usage facts - there are not too many rich applications on the web yet. Give silverlight some time, not too much, and you'll see.

Later addition: an interesting post on the same subject
http://segala.com/blog/microsofts-silverlight-end-of-flash-supremacy/