Many of my recent posts were about webware - web applciations competing and replacing the desktop software we all are accustomed to.
I decided that I need a separate blog for it. And I decided its time to revive my old blog hosted on wordpress.
This blog here, on blogger/blogspot will remain my personal blog for matters outside of web applications.
Here is my prediction - Web Apps usage will get a big boost in early 2010. The reason is Windows 7. Let me explain.
With all the nice Web Apps out there, they require a modern browser to shine. They need Ajax capability, good DOM manipulation, fast Javascript engine, good CSS support. Those are available in the best and newest browsers, especially Google Chrome 2 and Firefox 3.5. They are available in IE7 and IE8.
These crucial features are missing in IE6. Why is that important?
Because coprorate use is critical to the success of the productivity Web Applications, to Office 2.0. And IE6 is strong there. Today I was listening to Buzz Out Loud podcast (http://bol.cnet.com/) eposode 965, and they discussed how disproportionally high the IE6 usage numbers are in the corporate world. The number is 60%.
It contrasts with general browsers market share. According to the current state of Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Web_browser_usage_share.svg), IE is 66%, and of those only 17% is IE6. So IE6 is about 11% in general not 60%. No, wait, 11% is the aggregate result, so in non-corporate IE6 is even lower.
IE6 was released just before Windows XP. It is the default on Windows XP. That explains to me the phenomena. Corporate users don't upgrade. Corporate IT departements don't upgrade until they must.
Windows 7 will be released in October 2009. Microsoft claimed it is early 2010, util somebody leaked Windows preinstalled on a new laptop available for orders in October 2010. So now we know. IE8 will be (already is on my Windows 7 RC1 machine) the default browser.
Those in the corporate world who skipped Vista and stuck to Windows XP wait for Windows 7. (see for example http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24596745/).
Windows shipping in late 2009 means rollout will begin in earnest in early 2010.
And IE6 market share will nosedive. And the era of Office 2.0 will finaly dawn.
Google does not publish usage statistics of its Docs suite of applications. So it became a guessing game. The best summary I was able to find is
http://www.dullest.com/blog/google-docs-marketshare/
Matt Cutts compares data from 3 sources: compete.com, ClickStream, and Wakoopa .
Wakoopa cought my eye because the way Matt used it allows periodical re-gathering of numbers. One could plot a trend line here.
So I did. I have quickly written such calculator and followed numbers for about a week. In november 2008, as Matt reported, it was 5%. In May, I calculated it was 15%.
From one week of observations of how the numbers change, the numbers suggest it will be 30% a year from now, following the same measuring technique.
The results are published by me using, obviously, Google Spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=rvaDvIdh6E8qqluzLDpo5yw&gid=0
Matt compared the numbers from 3 sources and they differ. The reasons are in measurement methodology and audience of choice. ClickStream numbers were fifth of Wakoopa's. Preserving this ratio will mean that in a year from now ClickStream would report 6% market share for Google Docs.
My take: 6% or 30%, it is a lot. Watching Wakoopa numbers convinced me that online office is arriving fast.
